The sudden death of North Korean leader, Kim Jong-Il in December 2011 and the installation of his Switzerland educated young son, Kim Jong-Un raised the hopes for a possible radical moderation of the North Korean politics. However, these hopes have now been belied.There has been a gulf between DPRK’s tentative steps towards accommodation with the international community and concrete actions aimed to master the technology of long range missile launch as well as nuclear weaponry.
DPRK defied the world opinion as well the United Nation’s when it successfully launched a satellite in space in December 2012. This technology can also be deployed to launch ICBMs. And with its third nuclear test of 12th February 2013, DPRK thumbed its nose at the international community and made clear its resolve to be recognized as a nuclear weapons power.
Background
It is important to recall that it was the Americans who first introduced atomic warheads on the Korean peninsula. In 1957, the US unilaterally abrogated Para 13(d) of the Korean Armistice Agreement of 1953 which had mandated that both sides should not introduce new types of weapons into Korea. In 1958 nuclear armed honest John missiles and 280mm atomic cannons were deployed by US in South Korea. These nuclear weapons were eventually withdrawn by the US in 1991 after the end of Cold War.
North Korea has for a long time pursuing a course to acquire nuclear weapons. DPRK held that the then Soviet Union had betrayed Cuba in the Missile crisis in 1962 and set the objective of being militarily self-reliant. In 1985 the then Soviet Union persuaded DPRK to join the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty and promised to supply some nuclear power reactors to meet DPRK’s energy needs. However, that promise was not honoured.
After the rapprochement between US and China and the collapse of the Soviet Union, North Korean fears mounted and it sought a non-Aggression Pact with the United States. US took the stand that North Korea had repeatedly violated previous agreements and so talks could be held only under the Six Party framework, including China, Russia, Japan and South Korea also.
US President, George W Bush, had famously, named North Korea as part of an ‘Axis of Evil’ after 9/11. This accentuated DPRK’s fears for regime survival, and widened the ideological chasm between the two countries. In January 2003, North Korea announced its withdrawal from NPT in the midst of allegations that it had started an illegal uranium enrichment programme.
North Korea announced on 9 October 2006 that it had successfully conducted a nuclear test. Later in January 2007, DPRK stated that it had nuclear weapons. On 25 May 2009 DPRK conducted another nuclear test . On 12 February 2013, DPRK conducted its third nuclear test believed to be equivalent to 6-7kilotons of TNT.
UN Security Council had condemned the 2006 test in its Resolution 1874. The three nuclear tests and successive long range missile launches have attracted a range of sanctions from UNSC. But the sanctions lack teeth and have not deterred North Korea from pursuing its course.
Recent Escalation
On 7 March 2013, the United Nations approved fresh sanctions against Pyongyang. North Korea responded by declaring that it had the right to a ‘pre-emptive nuclear strike’ on the US. On 11 March United States and South Korea started their annual joint military exercises. North Korea assessed it as a preparation for war and announced scrapping of the 1953 Korean War Armistice. On 19 March, US in a show of strike force, flew B-52 nuclear capable bombers and latest B-2 Stealth Bombers over the Korean peninsula. In heightened rhetoric, North Korea threatened to attack the US bases in Guam and South Korean targets. On 30 March North Korea declared that it was entering a ‘A State of War’ with South Korea.
On 31 March, the Central Committee of the ruling Workers’ Party called the nuclear weapons ‘the nations life’ that would not be traded even for ‘billions of dollars’. The statement asserted that nuclear weapons were not ‘political bargaining chips.’ DPRK’s Department of Atomic Energy spokesman said on 1 April that scientists will commence work at a uranium enrichment plant and graphite moderated 5 MW reactor. On 3 April,DPRK banned entry of South Koreans in the Kaesong complex which houses South Korean factories on North’s soil.
Reactions
UNSG Ban Ki-Moon said on 2 April that “Things must begin to calm down, there is no need for DPRK to be on a collision course with the international community”. The Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman has called for restraint from all sides to resolve the ‘complex and sensitive’ situation. Unites States has warned of a ‘swift and strong response’ to any military provocation.
Addressing the Central Committee of the ruling Party Kim Jong Un said on 31 March that nuclear strength was a reliable war deterrent and a guarantee to protect sovereignty.In sum,DPRK’s actions may be attributed to achieve the following strategic objectives:-
i) To be recognized as a nuclear weapon power
ii) To embark on serious bilateral negotiations with USA
iii) Have an effective deterrent against any possible misadventure by the US to enforce regime change (e.g., in Iraq and Libya)
iv) Establish young Kim Jong-Un as a strong and resolute leader steadfast on the road for self reliance in defence, traversed by his grandfather and father.
Concerns for India
It is now fairly well established that DR. A Q Khan had supplied key data on uranium enrichment and technology for centrifuges to North Korea during 1990-96 in exchange of missile technology. There is no recent evidence that this unholy alliance is still continuing. But it is important that India remains watchful.
Ever since the unfortunate division of Korean peninsula and the tragic Korean War, India has played the role of a neutral party. However, in the current scenario in the Korean peninsula, India is unlikely to play the role of a peace-maker, directly or indirectly.
India’s interests lie in continued peace and tranquillity in the Korean peninsula. Any flare-up in that region could potentially devastate South Korea –India’s Strategic Partner – and would have major security implications for US, Japan and China. If past is any guide for DPRK’s behaviour, the situation is unlikely to reach a flashpoint. Whether North Korea’s actions will propel Japan and South Korea on a course to acquire nuclear weapons remains to be seen.